Just a quick update since I haven’t been posting much lately.
I’m still trading and currently short Eur/Jpy at 111.66 and short Eur/Usd at 1.3450.
I expect both these pairs to drop significantly this week:
Short Eur/Jpy at 111.70 with stop above 112.50
Short Eur/Usd at 1.3550 with stop above 1.3650
Over the last 2 weeks eur/usd, eur/jpy and gbp/usd have rallied pretty violently.
It looks like a top was set last week and that we will get a bit of a correction in all 3 of these pairs this week.
I’d suggest shorting any of these pairs at market with a stop just above last week’s highs.
I think that Eur Jpy should capitulate towards 100 in the next week or 2 with a maximum upside of 109.50.
Let’s take a look at the daily chart:
You can see on the chart above that Eur Jpy is still under the second descending trendline.
Stochastics have crossed and are pointing down.
You can see how the price action has been drifting sideways for the last 4-5 months and I think it is a consolidation and not a base forming.
At some point we will get a multi week or month up-move again, and I suspect that to happen after this capitulation, but be cautious that it could start at any point.
I would like to short 107 up to 108.50 with a stop above 109.50.
These are still critical times for Eur Jpy. It has to move higher soon or else a big drop is coming.
Let’s take a look at the daily chart:
As you can see on the chart above, Eur Jpy is stil under the 2nd descending trend line which is rather bearish.
It is also under the red wedge and horizontal resistance of around 110. If it cannot get past there then I expect Eur Jpy to head a lot lower, possibly to the 100 level.
I still don’t really trust Eur Jpy, but I would be willing to try a small short from 109.50 up to 110 with a stop above 110.50.
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