Want to learn how to make money trading forex? Keep reading...

Get my weekly forex trading recommendations and trading strategies straight to your inbox. Enter your email address below for instant access

All posts in Xau-Usd

Gold Analysis 14 Aug 10

Posted by Diggy on August 15, 2010

Gold is tricky. I still expect it to head lower (to around the 1000 level or even below).

Let’s take a look at the daily chart:

From the daily chart, you can see gold is still in a rising wedge up. Usually these rising wedges are bearish, but there may still be a couple weeks left before gold breaks down.

1226 should be the resistance and I think gold should not get above it. However, if it does break up through 1226 there is a possibility of gold reaching slightly new highs before going down again. Be cautious.

Strategy

I’m still short on average 1150.

I’m going to add up to 1226. (For those of you just doing a short-term trade then put a stop above 1230)

Comments: 1

Gold Analysis 2 Aug 10

Posted by Diggy on August 2, 2010

Gold hasn’t been really going anywhere fast the last couple of months. It’s kind of slow and boring actually.

I still expect it to head a lot lower, let’s take a look at the daily chart below:

How I see it is that there was a negative divergence on the RSI since May 10. The price eventually followed that negative divergence and is now lower.

Secondly: Gold prices broke down through the 50 ma AND the 100 ma,

Thirdly: Prices broke below the ascending trend line that has been holding strong since 2008. VERY IMPORTANT.

I think that last week was a retest of that ascending red trend line on the chart and that gold should not go above 1195 before heading a lot lower in the coming weeks. My first target is around 1120-1110.

Strategy

I’m still holding shorts. For anyone who is not in a trade I would suggest shorting 1185-1195 with a stop above 1200.

Comments: 0

Gold Analysis 17 Jul 10

Posted by Diggy on July 17, 2010

Gold!! I love it:)

I’ve been calling for gold to drop for the last few months already but it has not happened yet. I’m still holding short positions from as low as 1120 all the way up to 1240, and I believe that gold is finally about to seriously break down in the coming weeks.

As you can see on the above chart, there is the negative divergence on the RSI, which means the price action usually follows the direction of the divergence.

Also, gold has spent many days going sideways/consolidating UNDER the 50 ma and ended the week with a big down day.

I believe gold will break down through the ascending trend line from all the way back in 2008 and head towards 1120 but eventually back to 1000 and maybe even underneath it.

Strategy

I am already short this market, but if I were to enter from fresh, I would say short 1200-1220 with a stop above 1226. (I doubt it will even get to 1220 next week).

Comments: 1

Gold Analysis 4 Jul 10

Posted by Diggy on July 4, 2010

I have been calling for gold to drop for the last months, and it’s just been going up and sideways. What I knew but kind of ignored was that if there is serious distrust in governments, banks our financial institutions, gold becomes a safe-haven. That is why gold did not sell-off with the markets as it usually does over the last few months.

However, over the last 2-3 months a big negative divergence has formed on the daily gold chart and RSI, and on Thursday gold followed the negative divergence downwards. I think that gold should head to 1170 and if it breaks that to the downside (which I believe it will), then levels of 1100 or lower are possible.

I would say that upside for gold is limited to 1226 next week.

Strategy

I have been shorting gold for the last weeks, sometimes taking profits on positions and sometimes adding more shorts. For this week ahead I would short 1220-1226 with a stop above 1232.

Comments: 0