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Is A Return of 25% Per Month Sustainable?

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Over the last 4 months, my analysis and trading recommendations of Forexhabits.com have resulted in a 100% return on investment. Yes, 100% in 4 months, which averages 25% per month for the last four months.

The question is, “Is that sustainable?”.

When reading this, some of you may think that I over-leveraged my trades, or treated the account as a gambling account. I can assure you that this is not the case. Although I haven’t been the most risk-averse trader in the world, I have played it pretty safely.

Initially when I started off with the $100 000 (demo) account, I was trading lots of 100 000 for instance on a Eur/Jpy trade. This meant that it would need to go against me by 500 pips before I had a loss of 5000 Euro which would be about a 7% loss. Even if I were to make a massive misinterpretation of a trade and lose 5-7% on a trade, I would still have plenty of account left to recoup those losses.

Luckily (and with some skill) I was off to a good start and had a few winning trades. Of course this helps massively because then I was working from a profit and not from capital. As my account grew over time with my correct analysis and trades, I started scaling my trade sizes up to keep up with the size of the account.

Good Returns Are Possible to Sustain

My Forexhabits trades and analysis are far from a gamble. In my early days when I first discovered trading, I played around with a few demo accounts. By ‘played’ I really mean ‘gambled’. In those early days I would massively overleverage my account and sometimes double the entire account in a week or in 2 weeks. Similarly, I would also lose most of the account in a few weeks.

After much learning, playing, studying and observing I have gained a lot more knowledge about the Forex market and about trading. Of course, if I could guarantee a return of 25% per month for every month of the year I would have thousands of investors contacting me to give me their money to invest for them. WIthout a doubt.

There is no way that I can guarantee a return of 25% per month. I would be lying if I said otherwise. That being said, I do believe I can continue to make a good return month after month. I do not doubt that there will be times when my analysis is wrong and when I will have to take losses. That is part of the trading game.

How To Ensure Sustainable Profits

The best way to ensure sustainable profits is to have a system and stick to it. If you have been making good profits over a period of time, it must mean that you system has been working for you. What you need to do is have rules in place to make sure that you do not lose your account. As long as you have a good account, you can take a couple of hits and then claw your way back to making good profits. Every trader will go through periods of negative trades.

Do not get over confident and do not get arrogant. Even though I have made this massive return over the last 4 months, that by no means guarantees any future profits. It may be that I have been very lucky and not as skilled as I claim to be. Only time will tell. However, I have rules in place that will make me take losses when the trade goes against me. It may set me back a bit, maybe a bit more than a bit, but it will allow me to stay in the game and not blow my account.

That is the most important thing.

  • Stay humble.
  • Never think you are better than the marktes.
  • Always stay cautious.
  • Stick to your stop losses.
  • Trade according to your account size (%5 loss on a single trade as a general rule).

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DISCLAIMER: Online forex trading can cause substantial financial loss. While forexhabits.com and it's authors try their best to give accurate information to help you become a profitable trader, all the content on this site is meant for educational purposes only. Always trade with a stop loss, don't risk more than 5% of your account on a single trade and don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Forexhabits.com and its authors take no responsibility for any consequences resulting from your actions, whether it be financial loss or emotional damage. All actions you take based on content of forexhabits is entirely at your own risk.






2 Comments


  1. Thomas says:
    March 24, 2011 at 5:59 pm

    I am sorry for criticising, but a return of investment of 100% in 4 months equals not 25% per month.

    Lets assume you would have a ROI of 25% per month and you start with 100 €. After one month you have 125 Euro. After 2 months, you have 1.25 * 125 € = 162.50 €. After three months: 1.25 * 162.5 = 203.12€
    After four months: 253.91€ which equals a ROI of more than 153%. And this is definitely larger than the 100% you claimed.

    If you want to calculate your average monthly ROI, you need to take the 4th root (4th because of 4 months) of 2 (100%=1 initial capital + 100%=1 ROI) and you get 1.189 which means a ROI of 18.9% per month.

    Nevertheless this kind of ROI is more impressive than my mathematical abilities, so feel free to consider my comment as an act of jealousy…;)

    [Reply]

    Diggy Reply:
    April 2nd, 2011 at 8:28 am

    You are totally right Thomas, I just did a quick calculation in my head and my math was off :)

    [Reply]

    Reply

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