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[VIDEO] Eur Usd Anaylsis 25 Feb 2012

Posted by Diggy on February 25, 2012

For the first time ever I’ve decided to do my analysis on video. This is something I’ve been wanting to do for a long time now and will probably continue with this style of analysis from now on.

I’ve still added a daily chart as usual, so let’s have a look at it and see what we can predict is going to happen next week:
(Click on the chart below for a larger view)

All the indicators are in positive territory, although the RSI is starting to reach overbought territory. This is an indication that there is still plenty of strength behind this rally and it likely wants to head a lot higher.

The price action is now above the 21MAE, the 50MAE and the 100MAE, which is very bullish.

The 21MAE has crossed up through the 50MAE which is bullish.

A likely target for Eur/Usd is 1.3650-1.3750 within the next 2-3 weeks but a bit of a pullback or consolidation can be expected. I’d expect the 100MAE to be a good target for a pullback and it should prove to be solid support. This is why I’m going to recommend going long on a pullback to the 100MAE with a short stop.

Here’s the very first video, check it out:

Forex Trading Strategy

Look to go long from 1.3350 down to 1.3300 with a stop below 1.3280 with a target of 1.3600 or higher.

Comments: 2

Gold Analysis 22 Feb 2012

Posted by Diggy on February 22, 2012

Lately I’ve only been doing analysis on the Eur/Usd pair so I thought I’d change things up a bit and do an analysis on something new. In this case, I decided on gold.

Let’s take a look at a monthly chart below:

As you can see, gold has been in an uptrend since 2002. While this may seem unusual, if you spend some time reading about fiat currencies (paper money), then it’s not so strange because fiat currency is constantly devaluing so gold (which is real and cannot be printed out of thin air) gains. I don’t want to get into economics and theories in this post, but if you want to do some research on your own, read up about fiat currencies.

The monthly candlesticks suggest that we should see another retest of the $1900+ highs before any sort of serious decline can start.

I’d think that gold will see $1900+ within the next 2-3 months.

But to be sure, let’s take a look at a daily chart.

You can see that gold has moved in a wedge pattern for the last 6 months.

At the beginning of 2012 it broke out of that wedge, came back down to test the wedge and continued its ascent.

Currently it’s at a double-top level of 1760 that can prove to be temporary resistance, but even if a pull-back occurs, gold shouldn’t drop below 1700 and should head to its highs of $1900+.

Trading Recommendation

Buying gold at 1750 with a stop below 1700 and targeting 1900 seems like a good risk/reward trade (1:3).

Remember to trade according to your account size. If you want to wait for a better entry point (possibly after a pull-back occurs) then that’s up to you.

Keep your stops in and emotions out.

Comments: 0

Eur Usd Analysis 18 Feb 2012

Posted by Diggy on February 17, 2012

Last week’s call of going long Eur/Usd between 1.3100 and 1.3020 worked out perfectly. I actually timed it to go long at 1.3000 and rode it out for +110 pips profit.

Let’s take a look at possible trades for the week ahead, and we’ll start with the daily chart below:
(Click for a larger view)

Daily MACD histogram is below the zero line, meaning negative movement is likely.
Slow stochastics are pointing down although it looks like they could cross up, so that’s an unreliable signal.
The RSI is just above the 50 line meaning it is still in bullish territory, but barely.
Friday 17 February ended the daily candle as a swing day and pretty much exactly on the 50 MAE.

Trading Strategy For The Week Ahead

This swing day makes it likely that Monday will be a down day with an initial resistance around 1.3065. I’ll be looking to go short on the open on Sunday (if Eur/Usd doesn’t gap down) around 1.3140 with a stop above 1.3225. This is pretty much a 1:1 risk/reward trade but swing days have a high probability of turning out the way I’m describing so the trade seems like one that should be taken.

Comments: 6

Eur Usd Analysis 11 Feb 2012

Posted by Diggy on February 11, 2012

My analysis for Eur Usd over the last few weeks has proven to be correct and resulted in a few profitable trades.

Currently I feel that Eur/Usd is in a consolidation phase that should result in further upside movement but should it break support to the downside then I will revise my view.

Let’s take a look at a daily and weekly chart below:

As you can see on the daily chart above, Eur/Usd’s rally was halted by the 100 MAE at 1.3320.

The MACD histogram is positive, slow stochastics are positive although in overbought territory and the RSI is in bullish territory.

If you look at the rally in October 2011, the rally that started January 2012 seems to mirror it very closely. This means that we can expect a pullback to the 50 MAE or the 21 MAE around 1.3080. However, on the weekly chart a drop to around 1.3020 is possible but we’ll look at that in a second.

This means that I’ll be looking to go long somewhere between 1.3100 and 1.3020 with a stop below 1.2950 because if the support levels I mentioned above will hold, then I think that Eur/Usd will move towards 1.3500.

On the weekly chart above you can see how the rally was halted by the 21 MAE.

The MACD histogram has just crossed over above the zero line. I drew vertical lines every time this happened over the last few years and this shows how Eur/Usd has rallied higher every time this happens.

However, a drop back to last week’s low is possible, which is around the 1.3020 level.

Trading Recommendation

Go long between 1.3100 and 1.3020 with a stop below 1.2950, targeting 1.3500.

For a more exact entry point, keep your eye on the 4 hourly and the hourly charts to pick a bottom.

Comments: 2